Pick'em EV calculator for power and flex plays
Enter your app's payouts
Add the multiplier shown for this entry (3 of 3) to see expected value, break-even and the odds of each result.
How the pick'em math works
A power play pays only when every pick hits. If each pick has the same chance p of hitting and the entry pays M times your stake, the entry breaks even when p raised to the number of picks equals 1/M. For example, if a 2-pick entry paid 3×, each pick would need to win about 57.7% of the time (the square root of 1/3).
Flex plays pay something for near-misses, which lowers variance but usually also lowers the top payout. The calculator works out the probability of every result (all hit, one miss, two misses) and weights each payout by its chance, so you can compare power and flex for the same picks.
Where the win probability comes from
The honest answer is the market. Sharp sportsbooks price the same props, and removing their margin gives a fair probability for each side. Our no-vig odds calculator does that in one step. Pick'em research tools in our pick'em tools category automate it across thousands of props.
Questions
What win rate do I need to break even on pick'em?
It depends on the payout your app offers. As an illustration, a 2-pick power play paying 3× would need each pick to hit about 57.7% of the time. Enter your app's exact payouts above to see the break-even rate for your entry.
Is a flex play better than a power play?
Flex plays reduce variance because they pay when you miss one pick, but their top payout is lower. Which has higher expected value depends on your hit rate and the app's payout table, which is what this calculator compares.
Why doesn't the calculator fill in payouts for me?
Payout tables differ between apps, change over time and can vary by state and promotion, so there's no single correct default. Copy the multipliers shown in your app and the results will match your actual entry.